Confidence among Canada’s CEO community fell sharply in March, amid tariff uncertainty with the Trump administration in the US
Our forward-looking indicator, in partnership with the Chief Executive Group, which tracks CEOs’ outlook for business 12 months out, declined to 4.8 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. That is 20 percent lower than in January (5.9).
And only 35 percent of the 299 CEOs surveyed March 5-10, in the midst of the on-again, off-again tariffs on Canadian imports to the US and Ottawa’s retaliatory moves, expect business conditions to improve over the next 12 months. That proportion is down from 54 percent in January.
It’s not all projections, either. Canada’s CEOs say current business conditions have become “weak,” rating them 4.8 out of 10, a downgrade from our latest poll in January, when they had assigned conditions a rating of 5.4 (or “good,” according to the scale points).
While the main reason for this declining confidence centres around trade issues with the US, CEOs polled say it’s the volatility of the situation that is most concerning and causing confusion over what the best course of action should be.
As a result, half said they are sticking to their growth plans, with slight shifts in strategy and projected outcomes, while others say they’ve pivoted to wait and see and, even, survival mode. “Putting on the armour just in case,” said one CEO.
Some of the most common strategies used or considered to mitigate the impact of these tariffs, according to the survey, include shifting the supply chain (41 percent) and increasing prices (37 percent).
When asked what their future expectations mean for their respective companies over the next 12 months, most CEOs responded with revised forecasts:
* 42 percent forecast an increase in revenues over the next year, vs. 67 percent who had shared that forecast just six weeks ago.
* 34 percent expect profitability to be higher by this time next year, vs. 58 percent who in January had predicted increased profits in 2025.
* 23 percent are planning to increase their capital expenditures this year, vs. 51 percent in January.
* 24 percent are planning to hire in 2025, vs. 43 percent who had planned to in January. Instead, 50 percent are keeping the status quo, 13 percent are planning layoffs and 13 percent haven’t decided. CEOs had plenty more to say about the future of business in Canada, including the impact of federal elections, how the country should respond to tariffs going forward and how long they expect the tariff emergency to last.
For the detailed analysis, click here, to check out the March 2025 Infogram on the results, click here.